Key Insights:
- Peter Brandt characterized the Bitcoin price action as a potential “bear trap” that could precede a strong upward surge.
- Raoul Pal pointed out that Bitcoin has broken its downward trend relative to the Nasdaq 100 while establishing “DeMark lows.”
- The proportion of young coins in Bitcoin’s supply climbed to 25.71% from a low of 23.46% on July 29, indicating returning demand.
Following a nearly 6% gain on Friday, the price of Bitcoin hovered near $81,000 on Sept. 19. Experienced trader Peter Brandt characterized the most recent market structure as a potential “bear trap” that could act as a springboard for prices.
This upward momentum aligned with $433 million in inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. After recovering from levels beneath $76,000 earlier in the week, technical analysts are now eyeing the $82,000–$83,000 zone as the immediate overhead resistance.
Bitcoin Price Can See A “Bear Trap” Rally, Says Peter Brandt
Veteran investor and trader Peter Brandt highlighted that Bitcoin may be setting up a “bear trap” that functions as a “springboard.” He noted that this setup could unleash a powerful upward push for the Bitcoin price.
Brandt cautioned market participants against viewing this rally as an ordinary bounce. Furthermore, historical patterns indicate that BTC could mirror past cycles where the cryptocurrency recovered during the third quarter after both of the first two quarters ended negatively.
In prior instances where both Q1 and Q2 closed in negative territory, Bitcoin finished Q3 with a net profit. With under two weeks left in the quarter, Q3 2026 is presently showing gains of roughly 30%.
Another prominent analyst, Trader Tardigrade, identified a bull flag breakout on the daily Bitcoin chart following the breach of a major resistance barrier. Pointing to an RSI breakout above its descending trendline as confirmation of strengthening momentum, the analyst set a price target of $104,000.
According to Trader Tardigrade, the convergence of the price breakout and the RSI movement validates the setup. His forecast suggests the BTC price could climb to $104,000 prior to October, as illustrated in the accompanying graphic.
Bolstered by Friday’s price strength, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $433.00 million in total net inflows on Sept. 18, according to figures from Farside Investors. Fidelity’s FBTC led the pack with $310 million in inflows, followed by BlackRock’s IBIT with $108.40 million.
Bitwise’s BITB attracted $9.70 million, VanEck’s HODL brought in $2.30 million, and Ark’s ARKB secured $1.90 million, while all remaining ETFs posted zero inflows.
Bitcoin Could Outperform Nasdaq 100
Raoul Pal, a Wall Street veteran and former Goldman Sachs executive, stated he anticipates Bitcoin will outperform the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) over the months ahead. Pal pointed to fiscal dominance, refinancing demands, and expanding liquidity needs under a framework he terms “The Everything Code.”
Pal observed that Bitcoin rallied decisively even as interest rates climbed higher, asserting that current Bitcoin price trends deliver an unmistakable signal.
Looking at the near term, Pal mentioned that Bitcoin has broken its downtrend against the NDX, printing what he called “perfect DeMark lows.” He also referenced TradingView’s DeMark 9–13 indicators as metrics he closely monitors.
Bitcoin’s Young Coin Supply Paints Bullish Picture
Analyst Adam Livingston suggested that the proportion of younger coins within Bitcoin’s realized capitalization presents another bullish indicator. The percentage of the realized cap attributed to coins that moved within the prior six months bottomed at 23.46% on July 29 before climbing to 25.71%.
Livingston noted that 50 days have elapsed since the metric hit its lowest point. During earlier cycles in 2015, 2019, and 2022–2023, Bitcoin went on to generate returns exceeding 100% over the ensuing year.
Livingston further noted that Bitcoin’s current young-coin percentage stays in the lowest 8% of daily readings recorded since 2013. This implies that a substantial portion of the network’s on-chain cost basis has stayed dormant long enough to mature, creating a foundation that Livingston believes favors renewed demand.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.