Key Insights
- CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju anticipates that Bitcoin’s present cycle will yield a 3x to 5x gain instead of another rally exceeding 10x.
- The price of Bitcoin declined toward $84,000 following a rejection above $87,000, bringing the $82,000 support zone back into focus.
- On September 22, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs brought in $714.75 million, marking their fourth consecutive session of inflows.
On September 24, Bitcoin’s price slipped toward $84,000 after failing to sustain its recent advance past $87,000.
This retracement arrived alongside commentary from CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, who suggested that Bitcoin’s existing market cycle may still deliver a 3x–5x expansion, albeit accompanied by less extreme volatility than past cycles. He attributed this evolution to Bitcoin’s expanded market capitalization and rising institutional participation.
Ju refrained from offering a specific Bitcoin price target or asserting that the 3x–5x multiplier ought to be calculated from the current spot price.
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According to Ju, earlier Bitcoin cycles took place within a smaller marketplace that depended heavily on retail involvement. That market composition permitted speculative capital to drive prices up dramatically prior to severe bear markets.
He views today’s market as fundamentally different because institutions control a larger share of Bitcoin and total capitalization has grown. In Ju’s view, these dynamics can dampen outsized surges while also softening the blow of subsequent drawdowns.
This BTC price outlook relies in part on CryptoQuant’s Profit and Loss Index paired with its 365-day moving average. Ju noted that this longer-term metric is developing an inflection pattern historically seen around major shifts in market cycles.
Ju additionally highlighted the MVRV ratio, which has stayed above one throughout this cycle. This indicates that aggregate holders have maintained an average on-chain cost basis in profitable territory, even amid phases of market softness.
ETF Inflows and On-Chain Data Support Bullish Structure
Regulated investment vehicles continue to channel fresh capital into the asset class. Figures from SoSoValue revealed that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $715 million in net inflows on September 22.
This represented a fourth straight day of net inflows, concurrently with spot Ethereum ETFs collecting $162 million. An upward trend in realized capitalization further points to new money entering Bitcoin rather than existing funds merely changing hands among current holders.
Ju remarked that early Bitcoin whales have halted their distribution of coins, whereas futures whales have established substantial long positions close to recent lows. He connected these developments to more stable institutional involvement and less volatile market cycles.
Conversely, short-term holder profit levels have climbed to their highest point since the peak in October 2025, based on observations from market analyst Ted. He mentioned that while this reading does not point to a 50% crash, it elevates the likelihood of a correction.
At the same time, Polymarket participants currently price a 43% probability that Bitcoin hits $100,000 by December 31, 2026. Should that target go unmet, the odds increase to 59% by March 31, 2027, and reach 69% by June 30.
Bitcoin Price Tests $86,700 as Bulls Defend the Breakout
Bitcoin is currently testing resistance near $86,700 after a sharp rebound from the $60,000–$63,000 support band. This upward movement also lifted BTC past the previous ceiling of the $80,000–$82,000 range, which previously halted multiple recovery efforts.
According to Rekt Capital, the latest rejection near $86,700 has not yet translated into a decisive breakdown. Because Bitcoin maintains its position above the former breakout zone, the weekly market structure remains constructive as long as $82,000 holds firm as support.
Consequently, a downward drift toward $82,000 could emerge as the next major test for Bitcoin. A successful defense and retest of that level would validate the transition of old resistance into new support, potentially setting BTC up for another push toward $86,700.
Should buyers secure a weekly close above $86,700, the breakout framework would gain additional strength. The chart indicates the subsequent major resistance barrier resides near $93,650, positioning the $90,000 threshold within the upcoming upside target zone.
The bearish scenario activates if BTC breaks down below $82,000 on a sustained basis. Such a development could expose the $77,500–$80,000 region and elevate the danger of Bitcoin drifting back into its preceding trading range.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Analyst forecasts, on-chain indicators and prediction-market probabilities do not guarantee future Bitcoin performance.