Key Insights:
- Altcoin market cap excluding the top 10 rises about 10% this week while testing a two-year downtrend breakout.
- Bitcoin holds above $77,000 despite the CLARITY Act setback, Fed rate hike and Bank of Japan rate increase.
- OTHERS market cap moves above its long-term trendline, with a weekly close needed to confirm the breakout.
Excluding the ten largest cryptocurrencies, the altcoin market capitalization increased by approximately 10% this week. The TradingView OTHERS chart climbed to roughly $219.8 billion while simultaneously testing a two-year downtrend.
This breakout effort coincided with Bitcoin recovering past $80,000 on September 19. BTC managed this rebound despite higher borrowing costs in the U.S. and Japan, alongside a legislative hurdle for the CLARITY Act in the Senate.
Altcoin Market Cap Tests Two-Year Downtrend Breakout
On the weekly OTHERS chart, the altcoin valuation grew from roughly $199 billion to $219.8 billion, marking a gain of about 10.4%. Prices also broke past the descending resistance line originating from the 2024 peak near $451.3 billion.
That same trendline had repeatedly thwarted recovery pushes throughout 2025 and the first half of 2026, keeping the broader altcoin sector capped beneath a long-term ceiling.
The chart further highlights a substantial support band between $160 billion and $190 billion. The market cap defended this zone numerous times over the past 1,000 days, including multiple tests across 2025 and 2026. Attention now turns to the weekly close following this latest movement.
Analyst Ash Crypto noted that a successful close above the trendline will keep the breakout valid, whereas a failure could push the index back toward that established support range, which remains the primary reference level.
Altseason: Macro Pressure Fails to Stop Weekly Rebound
The altcoin breakout attempt unfolds against a backdrop of broad financial market volatility. On September 15, the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act when the bill missed the threshold of 60 votes needed to proceed.
Shortly after, the Federal Reserve hiked its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. The Bank of Japan implemented its own 25-basis-point rate increase to 1.25% on September 18.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index surged past 100 during the week, hitting 100.23 on September 17 to mark a seven-week high, while Brent crude settled at $104.82 on the same day.
Despite these macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin rebounded following a midweek dip, and the OTHERS index recorded its most significant weekly breakout attempt of 2026.
Cycle Charts Put Current Breakout in a Wider Structure
A separate two-week chart provided by Moustache compares the current altcoin setup to historical market cycles. By tracking the crypto market cap minus the top 10 assets, the model segments previous cycles into accumulation, breakout, expansion, and peak phases.
The analyst points out comparable descending structures preceding the rallies of 2016 and 2020, positioning the 2026 market near another prospective Phase 2 breakout.
This historical comparison relies on past market-cap formations. While the projected trajectory outlines a subsequent expansion phase stretching into 2026 and 2027, that portion reflects the analyst’s predictive model rather than actual market data.
On the technical front, momentum indicators on the weekly OTHERS chart are also pointing upward. The MACD histogram has entered positive territory, and the MACD line has crossed above the signal line. Additionally, prices remain above the red long-term moving average situated near $200 billion.
These indicators signal strengthening weekly momentum, though the descending trendline keeps the impending weekly close as a critical technical threshold.
The market remains well below its previous record highs, with the OTHERS index trading far under the roughly $451 billion peak depicted on the chart. At present, the primary technical test is whether altcoins can sustain their market capitalization above the breached trendline and avert a slide back into the support zone.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.